Forecasting container throughput A method implications for port planning

Title
Forecasting container throughput A method implications for port planning
Authors
P.W. de Langen
Keywords
logistics, container
Issue Date
2003
Publisher
인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원
Series/Report no.
Journal of international logistics and tradevol.1 no.1
Abstract
This paper analyses the determinats of transport demand for maritime
container transport. Such an analysis is relevant, among others for port planning,
since port expansion plans are based on forecasts. Inevitably, different opnions
about the future development of (container) transport flows exist, and decision-
makers are confronted with uncertainty. This paper analyses the variables of
container transport demand. Seven variables are identified, four related to the
overall volume of trade and international transport flows (the GDP, expors quote
of economies, the direction of trade and the value density of trade) and three
related to the containerised proportion of transport flows (the containerisable
share of transport flows, the containerisation rate and the share of shipping in
international trade). The rise of containerised transport flows from 1980 to 1995 is
based on different 'underlying factors'. The future development of the variables is
highly uncertain, and a good forecast for the future. Thus, decision-makers confronted
with the uncertainty about future trade flows, should try to maximise flexibility in
port planning.
URI
http://dspace.inha.ac.kr/handle/10505/642
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연구기관 > 대학부설 연구소 > 정석물류통상연구원 > Journal of international logistics and trade
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